LME Copper Price Surges Sharply Above $13,900: Tight Supply-Demand Drives a New Round of Price Hikes

LME Copper Price Surges Sharply Above $13,900:

Tight Supply-Demand Drives a New Round of Price Hikes

Global non-ferrous metals rebounded strongly, with LME copper surging sharply overnight. The price broke through recent

consolidation, opening a new upward trend for the global copper market.

This rally is purely driven by LME copper futures, with all analysis focusing on LME 3-month copper futures short-term

quotes (excluding spot and domestic market data). Overnight, LME 3-month copper futures surged $345/ton, up 2.56%, closing

at $13,920/ton and breaking the key $13,900 threshold to hit a new yearly high. Fueled by continuous capital inflows, the price

trended upward without notable intraday pullbacks. The short-term bullish trend is firmly confirmed, ending the earlier range-

bound consolidation and launching a strong unilateral uptrend.

This sharp LME copper surge is not a sentiment-driven spike, but a fundamental rally backed by three core drivers:

tightening supply, robust end-user demand, and persistent low inventories, supporting a sustainable uptrend.

01 Widening Mine Supply Deficit Leads to Structural Global Shortage

Supply-side disruptions are the key catalyst for the price rally. Severe infrastructure damage from last year’s mudslide

has delayed the full production resumption of Grasberg Mine, the world’s second-largest copper mine, until early 2028. This

prolonged delay has completely dispelled market expectations of easing global copper supply.

Global sulfur shortages and geopolitical tensions have further constrained smelting output, creating bottlenecks for refined

copper production. Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped to a nearly 20-year low, signaling extreme global copper

resource tightness and locking in a long-term structural supply deficit.

02 Booming New Energy Demand Consolidates Price Upside

The supply-demand gap keeps widening as shrinking supply meets expanding rigid demand. Copper’s dual applications in

traditional manufacturing and high-growth emerging industries provide steady fundamental support for price increases.

The new energy sector dominates demand growth. Rising penetration of new energy vehicles has boosted automotive

copper consumption substantially. Meanwhile, booming AI infrastructure, data centers and high-end electronics have driven 、

strong demand for precision copper materials and heat-dissipation components. Recovering power and general manufacturing

demand further underpins LME copper prices.

03 Sustained Inventory De-Depletion Maintains Tight Market Fundamentals

LME registered warehouse inventories remain at seasonal historic lows, keeping overseas physical copper supply tight. The

ultra-low inventory environment makes LME copper prices highly sensitive to incremental buying, easily triggering short squeeze

rallies and accelerating the overnight price surge.

Macro factors also bolster the uptrend. Dovish overseas monetary expectations and a weaker U.S. dollar have reduced

pressure on industrial metals, with both speculative and industrial capital increasing long positions in LME copper.

04 Market Outlook: High Volatility and Sustained Upward Trend

The core bullish fundamentals for LME copper remain solid: structural supply shortage, resilient demand, and low

inventories. Short-term prices will stay strong with an upward bias, and a sharp correction is unlikely.

Global copper industry participants (smelters, traders, processors and new energy enterprises) should prepare for sustained

rising LME copper prices. Tight physical supply will keep international raw material costs elevated, and a wait-and-see strategy is

no longer advisable.